Both states are bracing for major decisions over the fate of their election maps in the weeks ahead of a critical 2024 election.
Luke Perry, Distinguished Professor of Political Science, shared insights on New York's redistricting and House elections with The Hill. In the piece, titled "New York, Wisconsin brace for critical redistricting battles," Dr. Perry explained that if Democrats win a major redistricting court case, it still may not deliver big gains statewide in the 2024 House election.
Both states are bracing for major decisions over the fate of their election maps in the weeks ahead of a critical 2024 election. In New York State, Democrats are looking at another chance to have an independent commission redraw the state's congressional maps after it deadlocked last cycle. A court-appointed special master ultimately drew maps in which Republicans were able to flip a handful of seats.
In a separate case, Democrats are also seeking to have Wisconsin’s state legislative maps redrawn, arguing they’re “extreme partisan gerrymanders” and violate the state constitution.
The rulings in both cases, which could come as soon as this month, could have significant consequences for the future. New York could decide which party maintains control of the House, while Wisconsin is a noted battleground state that could be pivotal in future presidential elections.
A decision in New York’s redistricting case is anticipated later this month, and a potential redrawing of the map could have implications for the makeup of the districts and how competitive they are. But some observers believe that changes to New York’s redistricting alone will not be enough for Democrats.
“Unless somehow this process ends with very favorable Democratic maps, I think it’s gonna be a long road for [Democrats] to gain four seats and kind of resume where they were prior to the last redistricting,” explained Luke Perry, a professor of political science at Utica University.
Perry explained that while redistricting was a factor in why Republicans performed well during the November midterms, there were other factors in play. He pointed to former Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney’s (D-N.Y.) decision to run in a new district, along with Long Island — an area where Democrats saw several retirements — trending more conservative. Additionally, he noted the number of strong Republican candidates last cycle, including Lawler.
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